EclectEcon

Steve Polos has this forecast for the Canuck Buck:

The U.S. dollar will be firm; the Canadian dollar should ease to 83-84 cents by year-end, and to 80-81 cents by late 2007.

This forecast is wildly inconsistent with rising prices of oil and, in that respect, diverges significantly from his argument last year that the Loonie is a petro-currency. I am especially doubtful about his short-term prediction. I can readily imagine the Canadian Loonie will still be in the 90-cent range or higher by year's end. After that, who knows. But it is clear that Steve Polos does not think the Canuck Buck is as closely tied to the price of oil as I think it is or as he used to think it is. Or maybe he is indirectly predicting a major drop in the world price of oil...

For more of my assessments of the Canuck buck (including some decent forecasts back in January), see this.