EclectEcon

Economics and the mid-life crisis have much in common: Both dwell on foregone opportunities

C'est la vie; c'est la guerre; c'est la pomme de terre                                     A View from/of the Econochasm by John Palmer

Richard Posner deserves the next Nobel Prize in Economics
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Predictions for Today's NFL Championship Games
Here they are, worth just what you paid for them. Living evidence of why I'm an academic, not an oddsmaker. [Spreads courtesy of USA Today]

SD at NE: the oddsmakers have picked NE by 14. I would take SD plus the 14 points.

NYG at GB: the oddsmakers have picked GB by 7. I would take GB minus the 7 points.

Update at 6pm EST: 1 for 1. Patriots win by 9, so if I had taken SD plus the 14 points, I'd have won that bet (thanks to 3 interceptions thrown by Tom Brady).

Update at 10:05pm EST: Overtime, so my bet would lose. 1 for 2. Just the type of random result one would expect in efficient markets (see comment #1).
Category: Sports Posted on Sunday, January 20, 2008 at 6:02am
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To leave a comment, please post as "guest"
Acad Ronin:
The odds makers don't make predictions, they just stand in the middle, bringing the bets into balance. Hence the odds they quote are a market prediction, and the evidence on market predictions is that they beat alternative methods of prediction. So the question is, John, can you beat the market? If yes, stop wasting your time being an academic; if no, stay with the academic gig.
1.20.2008 7:18am
Mike Moffatt (mail) (www):
That's funny - I'd take NE and NYG.

I'm lousy at making sports predictions, though.
1.20.2008 11:09am
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